![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Latest Brexity musings
Nov. 17th, 2018 06:56 pmBlimey, what a week in politics, eh? It's been one of those where, against my better judgement, I found myself glued to the news feeds, waiting to see whatever's going to happen next.
I have to admire Theresa May's determination and resilience. I'd have told her party to sod off and sort it out themselves long ago, if it were me. May has made some dreadful choices on the way here, but she honestly seems to believe her deal is the best way forward. The problem is, no one else does. My own view, from as much as I've read, is that it is a terrible deal. It mainly seems to be about how the 2-year transition period will operate, with almost everything about the future UK/EU relationship still to be negotiated. We'd be committing to payin £39bn and being locked into a customs arrangement, in which we'd follow many of the EU's rules, but with no say over them, until such time as we can agree a future partnership. Not exactly a strong position in which to begin the next round of negotiations. Where's the incentive for the EU to ever offer us a good trade deal if they can just lock us into this in perpetuity? I can see why both Leavers and Remainers hate it.
But I can also see the argument that it's probably the least worst unhappy compromise we were ever likely to get from the Commission. In most negotiations, both parties aim for that sweet spot where you find a "win/win" outcome. But the Commission is idealogically opposed to "win/win" being an acceptable outcome. Is a better deal possible? Probably not. I always said I had voted Remain to avoid making a mess.
So what does happen next? A Tory leadership challenge seems almost inevitable, but May will probably win it. It's hard to think of any other candidates who wouldn't be completely unacceptable to either one fringe of the party or another. She won't get her deal through Parliament, although it all seems a bit late for Parliament to have suddenly grown a backbone. If it wanted to dictate what would happen in the event the Government couldn't get its deal through Parliament, the time to do that was when passing the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 or the European Union (withdrawal) Act 2018. As things stand, if the deal doesn't go through, we crash out with no deal on 29 March next year.
Part of me wonders whether May's steadfast refusal to consider any other option is a tactic to try to get her deal through. After all, if the EU could see there was a chance of cancelling Brexit, in whole or in part, the deal they'd offer could be even worse. Will she change her stance if the EU27 sign the deal off? Or if our Parliament doesn't? Legally, Parliament has signed away authority for her to do whatever she wants, but it remains sovereign. It would be politically hard for her to ignore a Commons vote on what she should do next. If the will was there, they could even force through emergency legislation to force her hand.
But we're still lacking decent alternatives. The EU has said it's this, no deal or no Brexit (yay!). I can see they might feel an obligation to renegotiate if there were a new Government, but that seems unlikely. The Commons may not vote for the deal, but they aren't going to vote for a general election either - that needs two thirds of the House to support it, and I can't see enough Tories going for it. Not that Labour offer any helpful solution anyway, beyond their self-serving call for an election. Their official policy (such as it is) has most of the drawbacks of May's plan - locking us into an agreement as "rule takers, not rule makers" - without even the few scant advantages (massively outweighed by the disadvantages, but at least there's some small logic to it) of leaving that May's does. The main problem with having a general election though, is that we'd probably end up with the same result as the last one, solving nothing.
So what about another referendum, a "people's vote", on the outcome? Well, one problem is the question - three options doesn't work. Although the hard-line Brexiteers won't like it, I can't see Parliament approving a question with a catastrophic "no deal" on the ballot paper. So I guess it would come down to choosing between May's deal versus Remain. That could work, and it's starting to look like the only light at the end of the tunnel. The main problem with having a second referendum though, is that we'd probably end up with the same result as the last one, solving nothing.
Opinion polls show a 6-10% lead for Remain at the moment, but that's not far off what they were before the first referendum. The polls also show that Leave voters are much more likely to turn up at the ballot box, to make sure "the will of the people" is honoured. Voter turnout amongst the under 30s looks like it would stay abysmally low.
If there is another vote, there needs to be a concerted effort to change people's minds. My social media friends, we need to be self-aware enough to recognise that we exist in our own little political bubble. It's very easy to criticise Leave voters as being wrong, ignorant or racist, but that's not going to persuade any of them to vote differently. We need to "check our privilege" and remember who Leave voters are for the most part - the poor, the elderly, the less well educated, the forgotten voters of non-metropolitan England, those who feel that the whole political system has failed them and overlooked them, to the extent that they might as well roll the dice in the hope they might - just might - get something better. Telling them they're stupid or wrong just makes us look like the "liberal elite" who don't understand their concerns.
So if there is going to be another vote, we - not just politicians and leaders in civil society, but all Remain supporters up and down the country - need to start talking and understanding the reasons why other people support leaving, what they are hoping for for the future, and how we can achieve the best way of getting there. We need to stop burning bridges, and start building them. If the UK is to have any chance of getting out of this hole we've got ourselves into, the time for the politics of division has to be over. We all have a responsibility for that. I know very few Leave voters (six, at last count), but I'll be working hard to change their minds.
Interesting times, eh?
I have to admire Theresa May's determination and resilience. I'd have told her party to sod off and sort it out themselves long ago, if it were me. May has made some dreadful choices on the way here, but she honestly seems to believe her deal is the best way forward. The problem is, no one else does. My own view, from as much as I've read, is that it is a terrible deal. It mainly seems to be about how the 2-year transition period will operate, with almost everything about the future UK/EU relationship still to be negotiated. We'd be committing to payin £39bn and being locked into a customs arrangement, in which we'd follow many of the EU's rules, but with no say over them, until such time as we can agree a future partnership. Not exactly a strong position in which to begin the next round of negotiations. Where's the incentive for the EU to ever offer us a good trade deal if they can just lock us into this in perpetuity? I can see why both Leavers and Remainers hate it.
But I can also see the argument that it's probably the least worst unhappy compromise we were ever likely to get from the Commission. In most negotiations, both parties aim for that sweet spot where you find a "win/win" outcome. But the Commission is idealogically opposed to "win/win" being an acceptable outcome. Is a better deal possible? Probably not. I always said I had voted Remain to avoid making a mess.
So what does happen next? A Tory leadership challenge seems almost inevitable, but May will probably win it. It's hard to think of any other candidates who wouldn't be completely unacceptable to either one fringe of the party or another. She won't get her deal through Parliament, although it all seems a bit late for Parliament to have suddenly grown a backbone. If it wanted to dictate what would happen in the event the Government couldn't get its deal through Parliament, the time to do that was when passing the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 or the European Union (withdrawal) Act 2018. As things stand, if the deal doesn't go through, we crash out with no deal on 29 March next year.
Part of me wonders whether May's steadfast refusal to consider any other option is a tactic to try to get her deal through. After all, if the EU could see there was a chance of cancelling Brexit, in whole or in part, the deal they'd offer could be even worse. Will she change her stance if the EU27 sign the deal off? Or if our Parliament doesn't? Legally, Parliament has signed away authority for her to do whatever she wants, but it remains sovereign. It would be politically hard for her to ignore a Commons vote on what she should do next. If the will was there, they could even force through emergency legislation to force her hand.
But we're still lacking decent alternatives. The EU has said it's this, no deal or no Brexit (yay!). I can see they might feel an obligation to renegotiate if there were a new Government, but that seems unlikely. The Commons may not vote for the deal, but they aren't going to vote for a general election either - that needs two thirds of the House to support it, and I can't see enough Tories going for it. Not that Labour offer any helpful solution anyway, beyond their self-serving call for an election. Their official policy (such as it is) has most of the drawbacks of May's plan - locking us into an agreement as "rule takers, not rule makers" - without even the few scant advantages (massively outweighed by the disadvantages, but at least there's some small logic to it) of leaving that May's does. The main problem with having a general election though, is that we'd probably end up with the same result as the last one, solving nothing.
So what about another referendum, a "people's vote", on the outcome? Well, one problem is the question - three options doesn't work. Although the hard-line Brexiteers won't like it, I can't see Parliament approving a question with a catastrophic "no deal" on the ballot paper. So I guess it would come down to choosing between May's deal versus Remain. That could work, and it's starting to look like the only light at the end of the tunnel. The main problem with having a second referendum though, is that we'd probably end up with the same result as the last one, solving nothing.
Opinion polls show a 6-10% lead for Remain at the moment, but that's not far off what they were before the first referendum. The polls also show that Leave voters are much more likely to turn up at the ballot box, to make sure "the will of the people" is honoured. Voter turnout amongst the under 30s looks like it would stay abysmally low.
If there is another vote, there needs to be a concerted effort to change people's minds. My social media friends, we need to be self-aware enough to recognise that we exist in our own little political bubble. It's very easy to criticise Leave voters as being wrong, ignorant or racist, but that's not going to persuade any of them to vote differently. We need to "check our privilege" and remember who Leave voters are for the most part - the poor, the elderly, the less well educated, the forgotten voters of non-metropolitan England, those who feel that the whole political system has failed them and overlooked them, to the extent that they might as well roll the dice in the hope they might - just might - get something better. Telling them they're stupid or wrong just makes us look like the "liberal elite" who don't understand their concerns.
So if there is going to be another vote, we - not just politicians and leaders in civil society, but all Remain supporters up and down the country - need to start talking and understanding the reasons why other people support leaving, what they are hoping for for the future, and how we can achieve the best way of getting there. We need to stop burning bridges, and start building them. If the UK is to have any chance of getting out of this hole we've got ourselves into, the time for the politics of division has to be over. We all have a responsibility for that. I know very few Leave voters (six, at last count), but I'll be working hard to change their minds.
Interesting times, eh?
