The morning after the night before

[rich_jacko]

Wow. Astonishing results.

So, the UK voted in 2011 to keep FPTP and the night has shown comprehensively why FPTP doesn't work.

Scotland voted last year to stay in the UK but the Union now looks to be in more trouble than ever.

Everyone thought coalition governments would become the new norm, but the Lib Dems' fate makes it unlikely any smaller party will want to go into coalition ever again.

The big story of the campaign was the rise of those smaller parties, but we're ending up with a very blue / red / yellow (albeit a different shade of yellow) House of Commons.

Not a good outcome for so many reasons. Where do we go from here?

Comments

[mathcathy]

The majority of people I spoke to today think it is a good outcome ... There was quite a lot of delight around at work and at the gym earlier on.

[rich-jacko.livejournal.com]

Most people around here seem to think the sky is falling in, but that's the Socialist People's Republic of South Yorkshire for you.

I am (and always have been) a floating voter. Last time around, I honestly believed a Conservative / Lib Dem coalition was the best outcome. I stick by that. For all the coalition's (many) faults, they've done a reasonable job on most fronts, whereas another five years of Gordon Brown would have been disastrous.

This time around, I had my fingers crossed for a Labour / Lib Dem / SNP alliance of some sort. Labour seemed to be offering a pretty sensible centre-left alternative; the Lib Dems could've kept their worst tax-and-spend instincts in check; and the SNP would have led them into discussions for sensible electoral and constitutional reform.

The scale and pace of the Conservatives' planned cuts really does scare me. Yes, government borrowing needs to be reduced, but it should be a longer term plan and there are better ways of doing it than they are intending.

I also fear for the future of the United Kingdom. The results were such a disconnect between Scotland and everywhere else, and I worry that Cameron's constitutional reforms will be more about gerrymandering than they will be about addressing the real issues of discontent with over-centralised politics.

We'll see.

[mr-s-face.livejournal.com]

In the question "where do we go", does the we refer to the country or the readers as individuals?

If the former, I'd say it's going to be brutal* class war. Increasing poverty, increasing police power to keep people in line, more conflict.

*brutal by modern UK standards.

If the latter... well, I already have something written:

The current government has an unreasonably high chance of killing me. That sounds melodramatic, but bear with me and I'll show you.

It's not just them. The last government did, too. And the one before that - two before that depending on whether you count elections or prime ministers. It was after all Labour that introduced the Work Capability Assessment, back in 2007:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work_Capability_Assessment

The WCA was pretty contentious. Partly because it suggested "people committing fraud by pretending to be disabled" was a serious issue costing the state enough to bother with (which was false then and is false now). But mostly because it was terribly run. The firm booked to administer the tests had a brief to make people "pass" and be deemed work capable. So they did. Many people were deemed work capable even in ludicrous situations, like being terminally ill. Start with the wiki, and there's a ton more reading on the internet if you like.

I don't know if or when I'll face a WCA. I do know that when it comes there's a pretty high chance it will deem me fit for work, no matter what my state of physical and mental health is. If it deems me fit for work I will appeal. But in the time taken before the appeal goes through, I will be moved from ESA (disability benefit) to JSA (unemployment benefit).

That in itself wasn't always a killer. I was on JSA before, and I could manage it then. But things have changed. JSA now has much harsher rules. If you miss appointments or are late for them, you will be sanctioned - which means having your benefits stopped. As someone disabled, I am incredibly likely to be late. If they send you to a "workfare" placement, then you have to do unpaid work or you'll be sanctioned. Since I'm disabled, I will be unable to do this. I mean, I'll try, but I can't. So I'll go, and then I'll fail, and then I'll be sanctioned.

Being sanctioned might or might not lead to my death. The timing of sanction and appeal might come together and I might survive. The question of housing benefit or universal credit is also important. Housing benefit would carry on being paid if I were sanctioned, universal credit wouldn't, which means if I'm sanctioned while on housing benefits then I might manage to survive long enough to become un-sanctioned or get my appeal. If I'm sanctioned on universal credit then I will rapidly lose my home and most of my possessions, and probably end up couch surfing, or homeless.

The worst case scenario is being sanctioned on UC and have the appeal fail. In this case I would have literally zero income and no hope of any. In this case my options would be begging or crime. I would have a significant chance of dying.

Outside of this worst-case scenario, there are outcomes where I spend months without any money, have to borrow from friends, or get evicted. There are outcomes where I spend months or years under incredible stress, trying desperately to stay on JSA.

(and then I had to cut for length)

[mr-s-face.livejournal.com]

part 2


But what are the chances of ending up like that? Well, it depends on whether the assessments become mandatory, whether universal credit becomes mandatory, and whether the assessments keep up their disturbingly high rate of saying people are fit for work. However, given the seriousness of the outcomes here.

The best-case scenario while the system remains is my current state - there is no hint of an assessment. So I am stressed, all of the time, waiting for the moment when I get a letter that might lead to my death.

I am not a big fan of the labour party, or the conservative party, or the liberal democrats. All three of those parties had a hand in making this system. Of them, I should say the conservatives are worse, since they introduced the JSA sanctions and schemes that will make a switch from ESA to JSA unsustainable.

I am unhappy about the election results, because there was a chance for this to change. If we had had a labour government that was reliant on the SNP and maybe the lib dems, we might have seen an easing off. Maybe not, but it might have been. Instead we see a tightening of the screws. For me, the next five years will be a time of constant increasing tension, waiting for the day when my life becomes unliveable.

It didn't have to be like this. It shouldn't be like this. Please help make it stop.

[rich-jacko.livejournal.com]

I don't know enough about how this system works, but I'd hope there were safeguards built in to prevent this type of worst case scenario from happening. If you weren't able to make it to appointments or weren't able to do a work placement, that ought to at least trigger a re-assessment of your ability to work. If it doesn't, it certainly should.

[mr-s-face.livejournal.com]

I would also hope there are safeguards, but I know this has already happened to some people. So if there are any safeguards, they don't work.

People have been sanctioned for not showing up to appointments they didn't know they had because the DWP had fucked up their address. People have been declared fit for work despite being terminally ill. One man was told to quit his cancer treatments because they were interfering with his ability to look for work/do workfare.

Basically, the system has ceased to be either fair or functional. And people are already dying.

[little_frank]

These safeguards are not in place. There are documented deaths. The noose is about to be tightened further. This has nothing to do with preventing fraud, and everything to do with considering support of sick and disabled people to be an unnecessary extravagance - a Victorian mindset.

I'm in a similar position to mr_s_face (actually better off because I own a house), and the system already nearly killed me. I suffered badly from the impact of 'back to work' bullying in the wrong ESA group before being saved by the skin of my teeth by an extraordinary GP who did what most refuse to do (because of the huge workload burden), wrote to them supporting my case, and declared me too unwell for in-person WCAs (which, by the way, one can be immediately re-subjected to should one win an appeal, and they can demand WCAs as often as they like as a deterrent measure against qualifying people continuing to claim). I could receive a letter about re-assessment any day, and with it the likelihood of some, most, or all my income being removed, even though neither cure nor return to work are possible for me. I don't have the strength to fight through appeals, re-assessments, re-applications.

For us, and many like us, this election result really is a disaster.