'21 done!

[rich_jacko]

2021 managed to clear the very low bar set by 2020 (Hey, the only new scar I have this year is a physical one...). We may not quite be back to normal yet - cancelled parties this week have sadly proven that - but we've collectively come a long way and this was the year life began to resume.

I've enjoyed regular meet-ups with friends again, trips to the seaside, a birthday picnic and meal out, the return of parkrun, two big family events/celebrations, my sister/nieces' visit to Sheffield, a trio of major running events, my first holiday away in two years, and a much freer Christmas than last year.

All the best to you all, however you're seeing in the New Year, and may you have a fantastic 2022!

Comments

[grok_mctanys]

What's your source for the 'flu death numbers?

I was looking for some actual data for more than a decade, to get a good idea for what counts as "common" or not, and the best source I came up with was the 2001-2019 data linked from Flu deaths per year since 2000 - Office for National Statistics.

After a brief diversion on how ICD-10 codes work to figure out whether J09 was equivalent to J009 or J090 (spoiler: it's J090) Looking through the spreadsheet for deaths with code J09* to J11* I only found totals ranging from 17 in 2006, up to a high of 1,598 in 2018, with most years being below 200.

Am I looking at the wrong data? Or am I looking at the data wrong?

[rich_jacko]

Sorry, I got this one wrong - I was thinking of the combined deaths from flu and pneumonia. In my defence, I probably got it from one of many commentators who the BMJ say have made this mistake. But whether it's flu alone, or flu and pneumonia combined, the point still stands.

[grok_mctanys]

the point still stands.

Does it though? Pneumonia has a bunch of causes, many of which are not contagious in the way that 'flu and Covid are, meaning that lockdowns would not have any effect on that proportion of those deaths anyway.

[rich_jacko]

I haven't found hard stats, but the leading causes of pneumonia are bacterial and viral infections. I don't believe discounting the other causes would affect the figures that much (especially given I said 20,000 and the numbers seem to be closer to 30,000). At this point, I think we're splitting hairs - the point is many thousands of deaths could be prevented each year if we were willing to live with lockdowns in perpetuity, but we aren't. I guess we sort of make the judgement we'd rather live in a society where we don't have constant lockdowns and can expect to live to about 80, than live in a society where all get to live past 90 but live half of our lives under lockdowns.

I doubt I'll be able to find it again, but I remember an article on a university website I read about a year ago, which suggested the reason people hate and don't always go along with Covid restrictions is basically because they're so inefficient - i.e. - you have to restrict so many lives in so many ways to avoid just one potential death, that people don't see the direct connection with their own actions and, on some level, don't feel it's worth it. It's the same with climate change, which will cause / is causing millions of deaths worldwide; there are lots of little things we could all do more of to reduce the impact; but we struggle to relate our own individual efforts to the overall picture.